Starmer faces his nightmare scenario.

Labour's strategy of chasing Reform has alienated the base. Now Starmer has opened himself up to a two pronged attack and the left is mobilising.

This was the weekend Westminster reverberated with shock at the news that Jeremy Corbyn and Zarah Sultana are forming a political party to attack Labour from the left. From the media reaction, you’d think it was some kind of cardinal sin.

In fact, it’s probably the most sound strategic idea anyone on the left has proposed in a long time — and there’s no reason it shouldn’t start paying dividends straight away.

The only truly frustrating thing about the coverage is the familiar accusation: that Corbyn and Sultana are “splitting the left.” But that simply isn’t true in any real-world sense. They would only be splitting the left if there were already an obvious, electorally viable left-wing party to split. But there isn’t.

The Lib Dems, for all that they posture as progressive, are not a left-wing party. They are the spiritual heirs of New Labour centrism. The Greens, admirable though they are, aren’t big enough, nor is their policy platform developed enough, to seriously challenge the status quo.

As for the idea that Labour itself is still a left-wing party — well, that’s so ridiculous it’s an insult to the intelligence of anyone who’s spent five minutes looking at their policy platform.

Labour’s own hard right — the so-called “moderates” — now have total control of the party machine. Their decision to chase Reform UK by handing them everything they want has been an unmitigated disaster.

Many Reform voters simply want change.

They want to burn down a political system that serves the same tired interests. They’re wrong to think that’s what Reform represents — but Reform talks the language of change, and in this shattered political climate, that’s often enough.

A left-wing party that also talks change — but talks about redistribution, about tackling real social and economic issues — would be pushing at an open door. Crucially, it could win back voters who’ve drifted to Reform out of desperation, and bring them back into the social democratic fold.

The people behind this new party don’t believe it’s going to upend the political system overnight.

Our system isn’t built for that kind of shock. It remains, functionally, a two-party setup. It’s rigged so that either Labour or the Tories are always in office, and the other is always waiting in the wings. That’s why many commentators still don’t take Reform seriously.

But Reform doesn’t need to win to do damage. It just needs to scare Labour enough that Starmer and his team start surrendering ground. And that’s exactly what’s happened.

The brilliance in what Corbyn and Sultana are doing — and what some in the commentariat are already starting to see — is this: by offering disaffected left-wing voters a real alternative, they put Starmer in a bind.

Labour’s leadership now has two basic choices.

They can continue chasing the right, doubling down on a platform that’s already alienated the base, and lose support to the new party — which will certainly cost them the next election, or they can pivot leftward, start actually listening to the country, and put a more ambitious, redistributive vision back on the table.

Corbyn and Sultana’s calculation is straightforward: if Labour’s right wing is as weak and spineless as it looks, they can be bullied left just as easily as they’ve been bullied right.

If what Starmer’s team fears most is being a one-term government, then the same mechanism that’s forced them to pander to Reform — fear of losing votes — can force them to start making real concessions to the progressive wing.

Corbyn and Sultana’s new party doesn’t even need to contest the next general election. It only needs to threaten to.

It only has to gain traction in the polls — enough to make Labour’s defeat look likely unless the party changes course. That alone could be enough to force a leadership challenge or compel Starmer’s team to shift policy significantly.

This government is three years out from the next election, but it already looks hopelessly adrift and in the kind of trouble administrations don’t recover from.

The shambles of last week makes Starmer’s fall from office look like it’s just a matter of time. His critics will only swell in number, and if the polling looks dire then he’s not going to last. The party will move against him.

There is little to suggest that Starmer, Reeves and the rest will lead Labour into the next election.

They are weak. Pathetic. The way they can be bounced around by polling numbers and focus groups means that Corbyn and Sultana’s new outfit — even just by existing — could push them in a direction they’d normally never go.

Incredibly, we’re already seeing signs that it’s working.

Before this new party even has a name, before any polling has been done, Labour figures are suddenly talking about a wealth tax.

That is not a coincidence. With their backs to the wall, facing the very real risk of losing votes on both flanks, Labour are being forced to consider policies they’ve long refused to touch. They might not ultimately go through with it — but the conversation has started. That’s how change begins.

If Corbyn and Sultana’s party gets off to a good start — if it starts climbing the polls, gaining support — the pressure on Labour to shift leftward will become irresistible. They won’t go all the way. But a purge of Labour’s most extreme right-wing faction becomes not just possible, but likely.

So yes, Corbyn and Sultana are onto something.

What some in the media are calling madness might, in fact, be a strategic masterstroke.

Even the existence of such a party forces a national conversation about what a left-wing alternative to Labour might look like. It reintroduces the idea of social justice, of redistribution, of investment in public services — and moves the Overton window slowly but surely back to the left.

And if enough people support that vision? If enough people say they’re willing to vote for it? That new party might just be able to push Labour into finally becoming the thing voters thought they were electing in the first place.

That would be a triumph of strategy — and a real service to the country.